Global Recession Monitor and Economic Scenarios
Still constructive on the economic outlook despite geopolitical risks
Elevated geopolitical risks inject uncertainty, but we are still baselining a robust U.S. economy
Emerging markets and Europe could face cyclical risks if commodity disruptions persist
Unemployment rate in the UK and Canada higher than estimates of longer-term equilibrium unemployment rates
Although parts of Canada might benefit from higher energy prices, the economy overall remains under pressure as businesses await USMCA negotiation outcomes.
Source: Russell Investments June 2026. Red represents areas of high risk; orange/gray represent areas of intermediate risk; green represents areas of low risk
RECESSION RISK
US
CAN
UK
EU
EM
Japan
Unemployment Rate
Central Bank Stance
Consumer Spending
Household Debt
Yield Curve
Financial Conditions
PMIs
Energy Prices
Overall
U.S. ECONOMIC SCENARIOS
NEUTRAL
35%
Jan: 35%
BEAR
20%
Jan: 25%
BULL
45%
Jan: 40%
LEGEND
Low
Low to Intermediate
Intermediate to high
High